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Politics
14:52 24/05/2007
HRAYR TOVMASYAN: “OUR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IS STILL A DISTORTING MIRROR OF THE SOCIETY”
Panorama.am interview with Hrayr Tovmasyan, attorney
- Summarizing the processes, can we say that Armenia passed the test of free, fair and transparent elections?
- While during the past elections the international observers or the international community watched and sensed likewise our common citizens, the last parliamentary elections didn’t make the observers feel and comprehend the presence of bribing, which was one of the most hidden fraud methods at these elections. While after the previous elections people protested as the contradiction of the results to the real public mood was obvious, nowadays such protest doesn’t occur, people mostly admit the voting results. And surely this couldn’t be seen by the international observers. The voting and votes summarizing of these elections were the fairest comparing to all the previous elections (except those of 1990, which I can’t judge because of being out of Armenia at that period), which can’t be said about the elections process itself. Our National Assembly is still a distorting mirror of the society.
- And what’s the reason for that?
- To find out the reasons of the emerged situation, we should analyze both pre-electoral and post-electoral processes. The question put should ask not “Were the elections free and fair?” but “Is it possible to carry out free and fair election in Armenia?” There are some preconditions, but is there a will of authorities? In outward appearance there was a will, but I think, in real it didn’t exist. Expression of such will would at least mean loss of power. The second precondition is the certain level of legal-political culture of society, in case of which the importance of elections in the aspect of the following development of our society is assessed. Armenian people are like a patient, which realizes that analgesic can not cure his disease, but still prefers it. If we draw parallels, it’s the bribe money which expires like the analgesic effect is over.
- As you noticed, some things escaped the observer’s attention, but they still didn’t give an excellent assessment to the elections. Does it mean they doesn’t expect perfect elections ever be held in Armenia?
- Even excluding the bribing the elections were not flawless. The fact of people gatherings at the electoral districts, absolute identification of power structures and party structures, etc., could not escape the observers’ attention. They did notice all of those. So if we even exclude bribing, which was the Achilles heel of these elections in my opinion, the other processes were not perfect either.
- Will there be reshuffling in the political field, if taking into account that the parliamentary image has not changed much?
- The election results were expected and were not turning. Of course there was a significant character, I mean “Prosperous Armenia” party, which didn’t meet the grand expectations because of its wrong pre-electoral strategy: when all the other parties began to declare their principles, slogans and promises, “PA” had nothing to say, cause everything was already said, though people were waiting for new calls. The second new parliamentary power is “Heritage” party, appearance of which in National Assembly is a definitely positive fact. This power is associated with Raffi Hovhannisyan, who has no equals in his patriotism and honesty.
- Do you think the political course is going to be changed?
- A political course turnabout at the moment is not expected, as the governing power got the absolute majority. There’s a tiny intrigue: the future competition of President Robert Kocharyan and Prime-minister Serge Sargsyan for the leading position. While the President declares that he’s not going to become the youngest retiree of the Republic, it means he’s going to play a political role in the future processes. And the only position giving such opportunity is the Prime-minister’s chair. Surely the President planned the “Prosperous Armenia” project, which meant that “PA” party gets somewhat less votes than the Republican party and the Republican doesn’t take 50+1%. In such a case the President’s chances to form a government would be much higher. And if United Labor Party would come to Parliament too, then Armenian Revolutionary Foundation “Dashnaktsutyun”, “Prosperous Armenia” and United Labor Party would form a majority and the President, becoming Prime-minister in 2008, would take a powerful place in that political system, which didn’t work out, I guess.
- What are the next steps following these developments?
- The President can state that it’s his majority as well. Though President is not a member of any party and Serge Sargsyan is the chair of that party board. In this case the Republican can solely take the whole governmental responsibility and leadership. May be the President will resort to confrontation with the Republican and appoint someone else instead of Serge Sargsyan, with a view to dissolute the National Assembly. If even two oppositional parties join and support a nominee of “Prosperous Armenia” or “Dashnaktsutyun”, the absolute majority would not be gained. According to Constitution, if one of the two candidates, nominated by the President, doesn’t get the confidence vote, the President has the right to dissolute the National Assembly. On the other hand, the National Assembly can vote for the second nominee, but declare distrust in an hour. In such a case the country can face a governmental crisis.
- Then who or what impeded realization of those programs?
- It’s difficult to blame someone. Theoretically and practically United Labor Party could come to Parliament and “Prosperous Armenia” and “Dashnaktsutyun” could gain more votes, but the Republican chose a more correct way to achieve its object.
- Do you think the Republican will agree to form an even affected coalition?
- If I were one of the Republican decision-makers, I would put a question: if I form a coalition, will that coalition support me at the presidential elections? And if “Dashnaktsutyun” declares intention to nominate its own candidate, there is a question – why should I make a power, which won’t support at the presidential elections, become a coalition member? Surely the Republican can grant those parties a minister or regional governor positions in order not to have opponents for a while. There are three ways of further developments: the Republican makes a sole government; a coalition of the Republican party, “Prosperous Armenia” and “Dashnaktsutyun” is formed; the Republican takes the solely political responsibility, but the government includes other parties’ members.
- Did opposition understand that their votes where lost because they didn’t unify? And does it give grounds to expect a common oppositional candidate at the presidential elections?
- Oppositional parties are going to appeal to Constitutional Court and will do it pretend to understand the mistake, but the next step to it should be giving up ambitions and going to Constitutional Court together. If they don’t, how can I guarantee that they can appear united at the upcoming presidential elections? If it continues like this, the authority candidate will possibly win the first even tour of elections.
- Summarizing the processes, can we say that Armenia passed the test of free, fair and transparent elections?
- While during the past elections the international observers or the international community watched and sensed likewise our common citizens, the last parliamentary elections didn’t make the observers feel and comprehend the presence of bribing, which was one of the most hidden fraud methods at these elections. While after the previous elections people protested as the contradiction of the results to the real public mood was obvious, nowadays such protest doesn’t occur, people mostly admit the voting results. And surely this couldn’t be seen by the international observers. The voting and votes summarizing of these elections were the fairest comparing to all the previous elections (except those of 1990, which I can’t judge because of being out of Armenia at that period), which can’t be said about the elections process itself. Our National Assembly is still a distorting mirror of the society.
- And what’s the reason for that?
- To find out the reasons of the emerged situation, we should analyze both pre-electoral and post-electoral processes. The question put should ask not “Were the elections free and fair?” but “Is it possible to carry out free and fair election in Armenia?” There are some preconditions, but is there a will of authorities? In outward appearance there was a will, but I think, in real it didn’t exist. Expression of such will would at least mean loss of power. The second precondition is the certain level of legal-political culture of society, in case of which the importance of elections in the aspect of the following development of our society is assessed. Armenian people are like a patient, which realizes that analgesic can not cure his disease, but still prefers it. If we draw parallels, it’s the bribe money which expires like the analgesic effect is over.
- As you noticed, some things escaped the observer’s attention, but they still didn’t give an excellent assessment to the elections. Does it mean they doesn’t expect perfect elections ever be held in Armenia?
- Even excluding the bribing the elections were not flawless. The fact of people gatherings at the electoral districts, absolute identification of power structures and party structures, etc., could not escape the observers’ attention. They did notice all of those. So if we even exclude bribing, which was the Achilles heel of these elections in my opinion, the other processes were not perfect either.
- Will there be reshuffling in the political field, if taking into account that the parliamentary image has not changed much?
- The election results were expected and were not turning. Of course there was a significant character, I mean “Prosperous Armenia” party, which didn’t meet the grand expectations because of its wrong pre-electoral strategy: when all the other parties began to declare their principles, slogans and promises, “PA” had nothing to say, cause everything was already said, though people were waiting for new calls. The second new parliamentary power is “Heritage” party, appearance of which in National Assembly is a definitely positive fact. This power is associated with Raffi Hovhannisyan, who has no equals in his patriotism and honesty.
- Do you think the political course is going to be changed?
- A political course turnabout at the moment is not expected, as the governing power got the absolute majority. There’s a tiny intrigue: the future competition of President Robert Kocharyan and Prime-minister Serge Sargsyan for the leading position. While the President declares that he’s not going to become the youngest retiree of the Republic, it means he’s going to play a political role in the future processes. And the only position giving such opportunity is the Prime-minister’s chair. Surely the President planned the “Prosperous Armenia” project, which meant that “PA” party gets somewhat less votes than the Republican party and the Republican doesn’t take 50+1%. In such a case the President’s chances to form a government would be much higher. And if United Labor Party would come to Parliament too, then Armenian Revolutionary Foundation “Dashnaktsutyun”, “Prosperous Armenia” and United Labor Party would form a majority and the President, becoming Prime-minister in 2008, would take a powerful place in that political system, which didn’t work out, I guess.
- What are the next steps following these developments?
- The President can state that it’s his majority as well. Though President is not a member of any party and Serge Sargsyan is the chair of that party board. In this case the Republican can solely take the whole governmental responsibility and leadership. May be the President will resort to confrontation with the Republican and appoint someone else instead of Serge Sargsyan, with a view to dissolute the National Assembly. If even two oppositional parties join and support a nominee of “Prosperous Armenia” or “Dashnaktsutyun”, the absolute majority would not be gained. According to Constitution, if one of the two candidates, nominated by the President, doesn’t get the confidence vote, the President has the right to dissolute the National Assembly. On the other hand, the National Assembly can vote for the second nominee, but declare distrust in an hour. In such a case the country can face a governmental crisis.
- Then who or what impeded realization of those programs?
- It’s difficult to blame someone. Theoretically and practically United Labor Party could come to Parliament and “Prosperous Armenia” and “Dashnaktsutyun” could gain more votes, but the Republican chose a more correct way to achieve its object.
- Do you think the Republican will agree to form an even affected coalition?
- If I were one of the Republican decision-makers, I would put a question: if I form a coalition, will that coalition support me at the presidential elections? And if “Dashnaktsutyun” declares intention to nominate its own candidate, there is a question – why should I make a power, which won’t support at the presidential elections, become a coalition member? Surely the Republican can grant those parties a minister or regional governor positions in order not to have opponents for a while. There are three ways of further developments: the Republican makes a sole government; a coalition of the Republican party, “Prosperous Armenia” and “Dashnaktsutyun” is formed; the Republican takes the solely political responsibility, but the government includes other parties’ members.
- Did opposition understand that their votes where lost because they didn’t unify? And does it give grounds to expect a common oppositional candidate at the presidential elections?
- Oppositional parties are going to appeal to Constitutional Court and will do it pretend to understand the mistake, but the next step to it should be giving up ambitions and going to Constitutional Court together. If they don’t, how can I guarantee that they can appear united at the upcoming presidential elections? If it continues like this, the authority candidate will possibly win the first even tour of elections.
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