ERDOGAN RESPONSIBLE FOR MESSING UP NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEGOTIATIONS

The statements made by the Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May 2009 have had negative impact on the resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Tevan Poghosyan the executive director of International Center of Human Development assessed the current situation talking with Panorama.am.

“I don’t know what Turkey’s mission was when making such statements but they have had critically negative impact on the issue, first for Azerbaijan,” Poghosyan said adding that his opinion is based on certain figures and surveys.

The center organizes social discussions in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh since 2006. “We have held discussions in 4 Armenian and 3 Artsakh communities in 2006 and in 2009 10 discussions have been held in Armenia and 3 in Artsakh,” he said.

After the discussions the participants were encouraged to choose a scenario for the NKR conflict resolution. Five variants and one “against all” point were to be voted. All the variants were drafted in the aftermath of co-chairs’ statements, mass media and civil society publications.

The first variant is called “status quo”, which means that the participant is satisfied with the on going status of Artsakh – Artsakh to protect its territories and people, to control over the neighboring territories, roads remain closed, NKR is not internationally recognized.

The second one is “within Azerbaijan’s territory”, the third - “Nagorno-Karabakh: independent or within Armenia’s territory”. It is supposed that Azerbaijan will recognize self-determination right of Artsakh, NKR neighboring lands are returned back to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Artsakh land communication is guaranteed and Azerbaijan and Nakhijevan communication is also guaranteed.

According to the fourth variant “leaving status issue” Azerbaijan recognizes the NKR self determination right but as soon as the war outcomes are neutralized international peacekeeping forces are set. The fifth variant is “postponed decision with definite guarantees” – the neighboring lands are returned as guarantees to recognize self determination right.

According to the survey results in 2006 38% of the participants voted for “Status quo” but in 2009 this figure increased. The center managed to hold discussion in five communities in Armenia before May. The results did not differ from the figures they had in 2006. Poghosyan said that if in 2006 the society was ready to resolve the conflict through compromises; in 2009 the situation has been changed in Armenia, as well as in Artsakh. It was found out that 60% in Armenia and 77% in Artsakh voted for “status quo”.

The experts say that if the negotiating processes continue and the parties remain on their former dispositions the only extraordinary thing to happen was the Turkish PM’s statements. It turns out that the PM’s statement interrupted the process and ruined the step by step efforts of the parties. “So, if they are not trusted, Azerbaijan is also distrusted because of them,” the expert said. After Turkish PM’s statement the Armenian and Artsakh people start thinking about the need to compromise. “It’s useless to compromise with Turkish; they will cheat in the end. Why should we negotiate if we know the results,” Poghosyan said referring to participants.

According to the survey results it is believed in Nagorno-Karabakh that the best tool of their security is their own army that the peacekeeping forces will not contribute to the conflict resolution. “They brought facts to their opinions,” the expert said.

People of Artsakh also stressed that irrespective of Artsakh involvement to the conflict resolution they would give agreement to the point which they liked themselves.