Expert: China's move to increase Iranian oil imports ahead of US talks no coincidence

As the world closely follows the ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, recent talks in Rome lasting over four hours on Saturday have sparked speculation of significant progress. The next round of negotiations is set to take place in Geneva next week.

 

What can be concluded at this stage? Panorama.am spoke with Iran expert Vardan Voskanyan to analyze the current developments and their broader implications.

 

Vardan Voskanyan: At this point, it’s still premature to speak definitively about progress, but there are certainly positive signals emerging from the first two rounds of negotiations. These signals have been acknowledged by both Iranian and American officials, which suggests the talks are proceeding in a constructive manner.

 

Nevertheless, we must remain cautious. There’s considerable noise surrounding the negotiations—an influx of information and disinformation—which makes it essential to discern fact from fiction.

 

One important factor to note is that the scope of the talks is broader than initially presented by the United States. While the focus appeared to be solely on Iran’s nuclear program, specifically its military dimensions, it now seems that peaceful nuclear initiatives have not been a central topic. Meanwhile, Iran has raised the issue of lifting sanctions, making it a key part of the agenda.

 

Another key factor is the drop in the dollar’s exchange rate in Iran, further strenghtening its positions ahead of the next round of negotiations.

 

Panorama.am: Mr. Voskanyan, media reports suggest that Russia could play a pivotal role in the potential normalization of U.S.-Iran relations. In fact, President Putin recently signed a law formalizing a strategic partnership with Iran. What regional developments might follow if the talks between Washington and Tehran succeed?

 

Vardan Voskanyan: Indeed, while the central issue remains Iran’s nuclear weapons program, there are deeper geopolitical layers at play. A growing impression is that the current U.S. administration’s long-term strategic focus is China. The potential thaw with Iran could be a way to reduce the significance of Iran-China relations, at least from Tehran’s perspective.

 

One clear indicator of this is China’s decision to nearly double its oil imports from Iran just ahead of the negotiations. This signals the possibility of sanctions being lifted, something the U.S. may be open to. If sanctions are removed, Iran could sell oil more freely, likely at higher prices. This would undermine China’s current advantage of purchasing Iranian oil at discounted rates.

 

A similar pattern can be observed in Iran-Russia relations. But it’s important to understand that within the U.S. administration, particularly in the White House, there are competing factions. The pro-Israel wing frequently seeks to intensify the narrative around Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

 

For Iran, its relationship with Russia serves as a key bargaining chip.

 

Regionally, Iran plays a critical role in the security architecture that affects Armenia. Given the Baku regime's aspirations towards Syunik and the “Zangezur Corridor”, a strong Iran aligns with Armenia’s long-term national interests. Therefore, a potential normalization of U.S.-Iran ties could also serve Armenia’s strategic goals.

 

Panorama.am: Just days ago, Armenia and Iran held joint military exercises near their shared border. What message did these maneuvers send?

 

Vardan Voskanyan: Absolutely, and the framing of those exercises focused on border checkpoint security and anti-terrorism scenarios makes it quite clear whom they were addressing. The reference is to the kind of militant involvement seen during the 44-day war.

 

It’s a positive step. Even though these were limited-scale drills, they set a precedent for deeper cooperation between Armenia and Iran in counter-terrorism efforts. We all clearly understand which challenges these drills aim to confront: the threats posed by the Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance.