Analyst: What is Pashinyan's calculation behind church 'seizure'?

Political analyst Suren Surenyants has weighed in on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s escalating campaign against the Armenian Apostolic Church and possible response to it. Below is his full statement shared on Telegram on Wednesday.

“Nikol Pashinyan’s cynical attack on the Armenian Apostolic Church blatantly violates Armenia’s constitution.

Therefore, those who oppose this campaign are, first and foremost, expressing their support for the Armenian constitution, and only then guided by other motives.

So, what is Pashinyan’s calculation behind this church “seizure” operation?

• The law is not on his side. As I noted, Pashinyan is blatantly violating Article 17 of the constitution.

• He cannot cite international precedent. The separation of church and state is one of the core pillars of Western democracy – one that safeguards freedom, societal stability and equality.
• He lacks public support. Pashinyan made a similar attempt in 2019, when he unlawfully ordered the blockade of courts. At the time, however, he still enjoyed high public trust, which enabled him to absorb the judicial system using unconstitutional methods.

But the situation has since changed. On the one hand, Pashinyan’s approval ratings have plummeted. On the other, his current scheme is far more grandiose and reckless, targeting an institution that is integral to Armenian national identity.

Evidently, Pashinyan is pursuing a path that may provoke civil unrest. Yet even so, it is illogical for him to rely solely on the backing of security forces.

The scale of public resistance may prove immense. Therefore, it’s possible that Pashinyan’s real bet lies in foreign interference with support potentially coming from globalist segments in the West, Azerbaijan and Turkey.

His overriding goal is to retain power, even at the cost of foreign intervention from enemy states.

The opposition’s mission should be to prevent national upheaval, to marginalize Pashinyan and his agenda and to ensure a peaceful change of power.

Slogans and patriotic speeches are not the path to success.

What’s needed is a political alternative, the establishment of real leadership and a strategic response – sometimes even asymmetric – to the government’s aggressive agenda.

I will continue to outline what steps the opposition should take.”