Expert: Geopolitical reshuffling continues in South Caucasus

By Varuzhan Geghamyan, a geopolitical strategist and regional security expert

The recent surge in tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan, as well as between Iran and Azerbaijan, is not a new development and can be explained with a simple formula. 

Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the reshaping of physical and geopolitical boundaries in the South Caucasus has remained incomplete. Unlike the post-1994 landscape, there is still no stable balance of power to ensure a long-term status quo.

As a result, all regional actors are maneuvering to retain or expand their influence. Among them, Turkey has emerged as the most assertive player.

I won't delve into the details of recent arrests or political intrigue as they are insignificant in the broader geopolitical picture. However, there is good, bad and very bad news for Armenia in the current situation.

The good news is that Turkey (and by extension, Azerbaijan) does not have unlimited power in the region due to several factors, including Turkey’s domestic political and economic crises and the constraints in its ability to confront Russia and Iran. These limitations create opportunities for Armenia to maneuver and defend its interests.

The bad news is that despite its limitations, Turkey still wields enough influence to dictate the regional agenda, strengthen its positions and expand its sphere of influence. The primary target of this strategy is Armenia and its main tool is the so-called "Zangezur Corridor" project. The infrastructure for this corridor is rapidly being built, while parallel political negotiations continue. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent visit and remarks about "Turan" are part of this process.

The very bad news is that Armenia continues to be led by a capitulationist leader, who does not perceive Turkish influence over Armenia as a threat, paving the way for total erosion of Armenian sovereignty, destruction of national defense structures and, ultimately, the repetition of Artsakh’s fate.

The saddest part is that a national, competent government could have already achieved multiple strategic successes, strengthening Armenia’s regional standing. Such opportunities still exist.