Former deputy agriculture minister warns of wheat shortages in Armenia

At a recent government meeting, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has stated that agricultural programs are proving effective. Yet, experts in the field hold a different view, warning of serious risks to food security due to shortages of wheat, a crop of strategic importance. Panorama.am on Friday spoke with former Deputy Minister of Agriculture Ashot Harutyunyan about the looming challenges.

Ashot Harutyunyan: Based on official statistics, last year’s wheat harvest was carried out on 54,400 hectares, with an average yield of 21.5 centners per hectare. That’s a very poor result. In total, only about 120,500 tons of wheat were produced, which is again a disappointing figure.

According to government data, Armenia’s wheat self-sufficiency level in 2024 stood at just 22.8%. On average, per capita bread availability was 366 grams per day, which is 10-20 grams less than in previous years.

The real issue is that in 2024, Armenia imported 316,000 tons of wheat, mainly from Russia. Of that, 88,000 tons were used as animal feed, significantly less than the 116,000-118,000 tons allocated in previous years.

Additionally, about 40,000 tons of flour were imported. Overall, wheat consumption was presented at around 380,000 tons, with reported losses of another 37,500 tons. These figures paint a very troubling picture. This year, wheat has been sown on just 47,700 hectares, 7,000 hectares less than the previous year. Reports from the regions already suggest that crop conditions are very poor. Even if we assume yields remain at last year’s level, production would barely reach 100,000 tons, about 20,000 tons less than last year.

On the import side, the picture is equally troubling. In the first half of 2025, Armenia imported around 134,000 tons of wheat, again mostly from Russia – 73,900 tons in the first quarter and 59,800 in the second. Even if imports doubled in the second half of the year, which is unlikely given mounting delays at the Lars checkpoint and the added difficulties of autumn rains, snow and icy roads, total imports would reach 268,000 tons. That would still fall short by roughly 50,000 tons compared to last year.

Meanwhile, flour imports have dropped by half to just 21,000 tons this year.

Panorama.am: So, will Armenia really face a bread shortage in 2025?

Ashot Harutyunyan: I’ve presented the figures. Let the competent authorities compare their own published data and they’ll see the problem clearly. I haven’t even mentioned real-time field conditions, which are worse than the official reports. But yes, of course we will face a bread shortage.

Panorama.am: Are reduced sowing areas due to the lack of state support?

Ashot Harutyunyan: Not only that. Wheat is a strategic crop, but it has been largely neglected. Programs are half-hearted, disorganized and fail to inspire confidence. Farmers haven’t received full state subsidies for spring sowings. There is also a seed shortage.

Wheat crop insurance against hail, frost and fire damage has been removed. That means no compensation for losses. Procurement is disorganized. Bank loan interest rates are high. Farmers simply don’t have the funds to cultivate wheat. Local production costs are high, while imported wheat is cheaper. The government has done almost nothing to offset this imbalance.

Panorama.am: Yet Nikol Pashinyan insists agriculture is on a path of stable growth.

Ashot Harutyunyan: Those claims does not reflect reality. Last year, according to official data, only 208,000 hectares of arable land were cultivated out of 443,000 available. This year, the government reports 196,300 hectares, a reduction of another 11,000-12,000 hectares. And even these figures seem to be untrue. You only need to visit the fields to see that there is simply no sowing in many places.