Serzh Sargsyan suggests secret deal in Dushanbe ahead of 2020 war

Former Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan syas a deal may have been struck between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders during a 2018 meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, implying that it could have influenced events leading up to the 2020 Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) war.

Speaking during an exclusive episode of the Imnemnimi podcast on Friday, he identified several factors that contributed to the outbreak of the 44-day conflict, which included Armenia’s rejection of the negotiations, vague settlement proposals and a decline in the Armenian army's combat readiness.

“The first cause was the complete refusal to engage in the negotiation process,” Sargsyan stated. “The second was the incoherent proposals that were put forward, which stalled the peace talks.” He asserted that Azerbaijani and Turkish intelligence services were well aware of the weakened state of Armenia’s military, which emboldened Baku to launch hostilities.

Sargsyan rejected the claims that the war was inevitable, emphasizing that by 2019 he had already observed problems within the armed forces and had warned of an impending military confrontation in August 2020.

The former president criticized Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for failing to fully grasp the details of the negotiation process. “You can’t understand where documents lead just by reading them,” he remarked.

Sargsyan suggested that during the 2018 Dushanbe meeting between Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, an undisclosed understanding may have been reached. “The developments following the Dushanbe meeting deeply alarmed me,” he said. “For nine years, the OSCE Minsk Group mediators and foreign ministers of the Council of Europe member states had reiterated that the conflict must be resolved based on the three well-known principles. But suddenly, in early 2019, that position changed – with Armenia’s apparent consent – and the focus shifted to the principle of justice for conflict settlement.”

According to Sargsyan, the shift from internationally recognized principles to the more ambiguous concept of “justice” posed a significant risk and was likely made at Azerbaijan’s request.

“I think there was a kind of trade-off: we’ll agree to that and you will stop border shootings in return,” he added.