Analyst: U.S. sees Turkey as strategic counterweight to Russia, China and Iran

The United States views Turkey as a natural barrier and counterweight to its main geopolitical rivals Russia, China and Iran, driving Washington to frame South Caucasus developments through a Turkish lens, political analyst Suren Sargsyan claims.

In a social media post on Friday, Sargsyan described the U.S. approach as a pragmatic calculation, arguing that a stronger Turkey, backed by broader Turkic ideological influence, can complicate Moscow and Beijing’s interests from the South Caucasus and Black Sea to Central Asia and the Middle East.

According to him, Washington aims to create obstacles and additional challenges for its competitors while simultaneously developing tools to keep Ankara’s influence in check. He compared the approach to U.S. policy toward India, which is also seen as a counterbalance to China despite periodic frictions.

Sargsyan warned that as long as Turkey is useful in the U.S. strategic rivalry with Russia and China, its regional influence will continue to grow, whether in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Syria, regional transit corridors or across Turkic states.

“In the absence of effective balancing mechanisms in the South Caucasus, these trends will persist until equilibrium is restored,” the analyst added.