Expert says 2026 parliamentary elections in Armenia could follow 'Moldovan scenario'

Armenian political strategist Armen Badalyan says the country’s next parliamentary elections could follow a “Moldovan scenario”, arguing that European Union involvement may tilt the process in favor of the ruling Civil Contract party.

Badalyan’s comments followed remarks by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who said Brussels was prepared to help Armenia counter “malign influence” ahead of the 2026 elections, similar to assistance previously provided to Moldova.

“Armenia have elections coming, and what can we do to help them? They have asked similar help to fight the malign influence, like we granted to Moldova,” Kallas said.

In an interview to Panorama.am on Tuesday, Badalyan claimed such assistance amounts to political engineering rather than neutral support.

“For three months now, I have said in various interviews that elections in Armenia will be conducted under the Moldovan scenario,” Badalyan said. “Because the EU succeeded in implementing that scenario in Moldova and securing a government it preferred, the same will now be done in Armenia.”

He stated that in Moldova, Western-backed actors used “unfair technologies” to ensure a parliamentary majority for President Maia Sandu’s party, including manipulation of overseas voting and the exclusion of certain parties from the electoral process. Those claims have been disputed by Moldovan authorities and international observers, but Badalyan said the outcome, 58% for the ruling camp, became the template he now fears for Armenia.

According to Badalyan, Armenian authorities have effectively asked the EU for support to retain power under the banner of resisting “hybrid warfare”, a term he said implicitly refers to Russia.

“They never name the country, but it is clear they mean Russia,” he said. “No one seriously believes India, Uzbekistan, or any other state is trying to shape power in Armenia against the EU.”

Badalyan argued that under such a scenario, public approval ratings would become irrelevant.

“If the Moldovan model is launched, it no longer matters what rating the ruling party has, because the process is not based on fair elections,” he said. “If the opposition plays by those rules, it will lose, because the ending is already written by the scriptwriters.”

He further claimed that Western actors have a strategic interest in preserving Armenia’s current leadership due to its policies, including distancing from Russia and resolving or sidelining long-running regional disputes.

“The EU is openly saying: we will use all possible methods in your country and keep the ruling party in power,” Badalyan said. “They believe another government could reverse these processes.”

Looking ahead to the 2026 parliamentary elections, Badalyan said the opposition faces a stark choice.

“They can either become part of the Moldovan scenario and remain in opposition at best, or they can change the game and seek allies,” he said, naming Iran and Russia as the only states he believes currently oppose Western-led initiatives in Armenia.

“Otherwise, the opposition cannot compete with the combined influence of the EU, the United States, Britain, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Israel,” the expert added.

The Armenian government has repeatedly said it retains strong voter support and expects a decisive victory in the next elections. Badalyan questioned that narrative, asking why outside assistance would be necessary if public backing were as solid as officials claim.