Analyst: Turkey continues to link Armenia normalization to Azerbaijan peace deal

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s latest comments on normalization of relations with Armenia signal that Ankara continues to link the process tightly to a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, political analyst Suren Suryants said on Wednesday, adding that any near-term progress is likely to be largely symbolic.

Speaking at Turkey’s 16th Ambassadors Conference, Erdogan said Ankara is advancing its normalization processes with Armenia in close dialogue with Azerbaijan, adding that the South Caucasus stands at a “historic juncture” after years of instability.

"Azerbaijan and Armenia are closer than ever to signing a peace agreement. In parallel with this process and in dialogue with Azerbaijan, we are also moving forward with our normalization steps with Armenia. God willing, we will take some symbolic steps starting from the beginning of next year," Erdogan said.

According to Suryants, the remarks underline that Turkey does not view relations with Armenia as an independent diplomatic track.

“Turkey continues to treat Armenian-Turkish relations not as a separate agenda, but as a derivative of the Armenian-Azerbaijani process,” he wrote on Telegram. “In practice, Ankara conditions real normalization with Yerevan exclusively on the conclusion of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan based on the model proposed by Baku.”

Suryants said the “symbolic steps” mentioned by Erdogan should not be interpreted as institutional or substantive progress in bilateral relations.

“They are more likely to involve demonstrative and limited initiatives,” he said, adding that such moves could help Armenia’s current leadership, particularly Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, project an image of diplomatic progress ahead of upcoming elections.

Possible gestures could include opening the shared border to third-country nationals, expanding direct flights, restoring railway links or other limited measures, Suryants said.

However, he emphasized that Turkey also stands to benefit from such steps.

“This is not purely about helping Pashinyan domestically,” Suryants said. “Erdogan also seeks concrete gains, such as the opening of the so-called ‘Zangezur corridor’. It is more a convergence of interests than a one-sided favor.”

“Turkey aims to pursue three objectives simultaneously: maintaining contact with Yerevan, preserving full political coordination with Baku and supporting a government in Armenia willing to accept a forced agenda under the banner of peace,” the analyst stated, adding Turkey views Armenia not as an equal partner, but as an object of a managed geopolitical process.