Analyst: Armenia's progress toward peace driven by U.S. pressure, not Yerevan's diplomacy

Claims that Armenia has moved closer to peace as a result of its government’s diplomatic efforts are unfounded, Armenian political analyst Suren Sargsyan says, arguing that recent shifts are instead the result of pressure exerted by the United States on Azerbaijan.

“Claims that Armenia has approached peace due to the diplomacy pursued by the authorities are false,” Sargsyan wrote on Facebook on Friday.

He pointed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent statement that he had applied pressure to advance Armenian-Azerbaijani peace efforts, a remark Sargsyan said was largely overlooked despite its significance.

“Obviously, this pressure was applied exclusively on Azerbaijan,” Sargsyan said. “Armenia was already under pressure and ready to make additional concessions. In other words, it was not Armenia that altered Baku’s position through negotiations, but Washington that did so through pressure.”

According to Sargsyan, the U.S. involvement was motivated not by Armenian interests, but by broader American geopolitical priorities.

The expert also highlighted that Trump adviser Steve Witkoff visited Baku in March for talks, while skipping Yerevan, as evidence of Armenia’s limited role in the process.

“This once again demonstrates that Armenia has assumed a passive role in the process and there was simply nothing to discuss with Yerevan,” Sargsyan said.

He argued that Armenia has already fulfilled and continues to fulfill a wide range of concessions, and that any shift in the situation between early and late 2024 cannot be attributed to the Armenian government policies.

“This is a purely geopolitical process,” Sargsyan said, describing it as being directed by Trump “from Central Asia to the South Caucasus, Turkey and Europe” in line with U.S. strategic interests.

At the same time, Sargsyan warned that a degree of stabilization does not mean Azerbaijan no longer views Armenia as an enemy.

“The evidence is abundant from official rhetoric to concrete actions,” he said.

“The decisive role in these developments has been played by the U.S. under Trump, while the Armenian authorities have had no involvement in this process and could not have had any,” Sargsyan concluded.