Armenian environmental lawyer dismisses Amulsar mine GDP boost forecast as 'fiction'

Armenian environmental lawyer Nazeli Vardanyan on Tuesday dismissed forecasts that the launch of the Amulsar gold mine would significantly boost Armenia’s economic growth, calling the figures “fiction” driven by an election campaign.

Her comments came after Fitch Ratings reported that Armenia's real GDP growth is expected to remain above 5% in 2026-2027, driven by a resilient services sector and the launch of the Amulsar gold mine, which the agency said could add around 1.25 percentage points to GDP.

“All of these are invented numbers. It’s an election campaign – you can write whatever you want,” Vardanyan told Panorama.am in an interview. “If the Amulsar mine was so beneficial, why wasn’t it operating for the past 20 years?”

Vardanyan argued that GDP growth does not translate into improved living standards, pointing to rising prices. She also questioned the economic viability of the project, saying the gold concentration at Amulsar – about 0.7 grams per ton – was too low to be profitable by international standards.

“In countries with normal mining practices, deposits with less than one gram of gold per ton are not exploited because it is inefficient,” the lawyer stated.

She said the operator, Lydian International, was in bankruptcy proceedings and that any future revenues from the mine would not benefit the Armenian state. According to Vardanyan, all of the company’s assets, future output and cash flows are pledged to U.S.-based Orion Mine Finance and Canada’s Osisko Gold Royalties.

“Even if those numbers were correct and profits were generated, all of it would belong to those two corporations, not to the state,” she said.

Vardanyan cited a decision by the Ontario Superior Court of Justice, which confirmed Lydian International's insolvency and dedication of assets to creditors.

She also warned of environmental and health damage already caused at the site, alleging that blasting operations had released yellow and orange dust clouds that local residents inhaled. “We will hear in the future what illnesses people have developed,” she said.

Vardanyan added that the Secretariat of the Bern Convention had stated that the Amulsar area is home to protected species listed in Armenia’s Red Book and that any activity there violates the convention and should be halted.

“No one is paying attention to all this now,” she said. “But one day, they will have to answer for it.”