Washington-Baku axis leaves Yerevan with limited room to maneuver – analyst

Armenia remains on the margins of regional decision-making as the United States deepens substantive ties with Azerbaijan, political analyst Suren Surenyants claims, pointing to a structural imbalance in Washington’s South Caucasus policy.

In a social media post on Monday, Surenyants said U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s planned visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan signals continued U.S. engagement following the initialing of an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement, but does not alter the underlying logic of U.S.-Armenia relations.

Analyzing a recent statement by U.S. President Donald Trump, Surenyants noted that Washington’s approach to Baku includes concrete elements such as deepening strategic partnership, defense sales and expanded security cooperation, hallmarks of “subject-to-subject” relations driven by mutual interests.

By contrast, cooperation proposed with Armenia is largely technological and long-term, including possible collaboration in the peaceful nuclear field, he said. While potentially beneficial economically and institutionally, such initiatives do not directly affect the regional security environment or provide Armenia with comparable political leverage.

Surenyants added that initiatives framed as part of a broader U.S. global agenda leave Armenia playing a largely operational role rather than acting as a co-architect of strategy. As a result, he argued, key political and security dynamics are shaped along a Washington-Baku axis, with Yerevan drawn into a pre-defined framework and limited room to maneuver.

The imbalance, he said, is systemic and predates the current diplomatic activity, citing an August 8 meeting in Washington between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Trump that failed to demonstrate a qualitative increase in Armenia’s agency.

In conclusion, Surenyants said high-level visits may reflect diplomatic activity but will not, on their own, transform U.S.-Armenia relations unless they are underpinned by clear political, security and strategic mutual interests.