Armenian political analyst accuses authorities of undermining constitutional order ahead of elections

Armenian political analyst Suren Surenyants has accused Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of using rhetoric that risks undermining the country’s constitutional order ahead of upcoming parliamentary elections.

Speaking at a recent press conference, Pashinyan said the elections would result in all former ruling elites and oligarchs being permanently pushed out of the political arena.

In a social media post on Tuesday, Surenyants stressed that the essence of democratic elections lies in uncertainty and unpredictability, arguing that outcomes must be determined by the free will of voters rather than “authoritarian orders” from those in power.

“When a sitting prime minister publicly declares that certain groups will be ‘finally and irreversibly’ expelled from politics after elections, it ceases to be a political assessment,” Surenyants wrote. “It becomes a message with clear addressees and predetermined implications.”

He said such wording, particularly from the head of government, could be perceived as a signal to state institutions, including the administrative apparatus, law enforcement agencies and electoral commissions, suggesting that the outcome is being outlined in advance rather than left to voters.

Surenyants also criticized the lack of sociological data or public opinion research cited to support the claim that the people had already made such a decision. Declaring the “will of the people” without measurable evidence, he argued, risks transforming political confidence into arbitrariness and authoritarianism.

Deputy National Assembly Speaker Ruben Rubinyan expanded on the theme later, alleging that a “collective opposition” was planning to replicate what he called the Gyumri election scenario in the parliamentary vote.

Rubinyan referred to opposition forces associated with former President Robert Kocharyan, businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, and entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan.

Surenyants dismissed the term “collective opposition” as a political construct lacking legal or practical meaning, noting that opposition parties contesting parliamentary elections have not announced a joint list or alliance.

He described the example of municipal elections in Gyumri as a standard manifestation of parliamentary democracy, in which parties that pass the electoral threshold may form coalitions reflecting the majority will of voters.

He also pointed out that Tigran Avinyan was elected mayor of Yerevan through a similar mechanism prior to the Gyumri vote, arguing that authorities recognize coalition-building as legitimate when it secures their own position but characterize it as dangerous when it benefits opponents.

By accusing the opposition of intending to replicate the Gyumri scenario in parliamentary elections, Surenyants said the ruling Civil Contract party members were effectively challenging the constitutional framework itself.

He argued that such rhetoric calls into question the meaning of competitive elections by implying that power can only be legitimately formed by one force, while alternative political combinations are portrayed as distortions of the popular will.

“Democracy begins at the moment when those in power accept a simple but fundamental truth: the outcome of elections is determined by the ballot, not by their whim,” Surenyants wrote.