Armenia's stance unclear amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, analyst says

Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran are likely to have a direct impact on Armenia’s relations with both countries, yet Yerevan’s position remains uncertain, Iran expert Vardan Voskanyan said on Wednesday.

Speaking at the discussion “South Caucasus: Rearrangement of Forces”, Voskanyan, a member of the Homeland Party, said that recent contacts between Tehran and Washington cannot be described as formal negotiations.

“They are indirect contacts conducted through the mediation of Oman’s foreign minister,” he noted.

According to Voskanyan, Tehran has strictly limited the scope of any potential talks to its nuclear program. Iran insists on its right to maintain a peaceful nuclear program and to retain enriched uranium on its territory. In return, it is demanding the full lifting of sanctions.

“Iran is not prepared to discuss its missile program or its relations with allied forces in the region,” Voskanyan added.

At the same time, he emphasized that diplomatic contacts have been accompanied by heightened military rhetoric and visible military movements.

“We are witnessing a process in which negotiations or diplomatic contacts are combined with elements of military pressure. However, this is not a direct confrontation. It is a strategy of coercive signaling,” he said.

Voskanyan stressed that Iranian officials are well aware they are facing “the world’s leading superpower, with the most powerful and expensive military”, and are therefore relying on asymmetric methods.

“Iran has made it clear that if a clash occurs, it will differ from previous confrontations. Tehran would seek to turn such a clash into a regional conflict, targeting U.S. military infrastructure across the Middle East,” he said.

The potential risk of escalation lies only a few hundred kilometers from Armenia’s borders, Voskanyan warned, noting that the distance between the Armenian town of Meghri and Iran is measured in mere meters.

“In this context, Armenia must develop contingency plans for various possible scenarios,” he said.

However, Voskanyan criticized what he described as a low level of strategic decision-making in Armenia, arguing that the country’s position amid the turbulence in U.S.–Iran relations lacks clarity.

He contrasted Armenia’s approach with that of several Middle Eastern states.

“Nearly all Arab countries in the region, as well as Turkey and Azerbaijan, are maintaining contact with both Iran and the United States, either offering mediation or signaling their readiness to do so,” he said. “Meanwhile, Armenia has remained silent; there are no statements, no mediation proposal, not even a phone call with senior Iranian officials. This is yet another failure.”