Risk of U.S-Iran military clash remains high, says Armenian analyst

The likelihood of a military confrontation between the United States and Iran remains high, Armenian political analyst Suren Sargsyan says.

“The U.S. armed forces are at full combat readiness and prepared to carry out military operations against Iran at any moment,” Sargsyan wrote on Facebook on Tuesday. “As for Trump, the final decision rests with him, but he is still hesitating.”

According to Sargsyan, U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking to buy time in order to address two strategic considerations before making a final decision.

First, he must shape public perception and secure sufficient domestic support to justify possible attacks on Iran. This would require demonstrating that all diplomatic avenues have been exhausted and advancing the narrative that Iran is dangerously close to enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels.

Second, Sargsyan stated Trump is weighing the domestic political risks associated with a potential military operation. Heavy U.S. military casualties or other serious consequences could damage both his standing and that of the Republican Party ahead of November elections.

Such an outcome, he noted, could strengthen Democrats’ position and revive impeachment efforts. Three impeachment proposals are currently pending in the House of Representatives and any significant setback could prompt some Republicans to again support impeachment as occurred during Trump’s previous presidency.

During his earlier term in office, Democrats launched impeachment proceedings against Trump, mounted sustained political and media campaigns to maintain public pressure and ultimately secured support from roughly a dozen Republican lawmakers.

“Trump’s team still has much to calculate and consider,” Sargsyan said. “However, the likelihood of a military clash remains very high.”