Three developments could shape trajectory of Iran war, Armenian analyst says

Three key developments in the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could determine the conflict direction in the coming days, Armenian political analyst Varuzhan Geghamyan said in a social media post on Tuesday.

First, Geghamyan said Washington and particularly Israel are likely to combine airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure with efforts to destabilize Iran internally, including encouraging separatist movements among ethnic minorities such as Kurds, Baluch and Azeris.

Second, he argued that while the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would represent a tactical gain for U.S.-Israeli forces, it would not amount to a strategic victory. He suggested the attacking side may have overestimated the likelihood of a rapid collapse of Iran’s leadership and lacks a clearly defined exit strategy if that does not materialize.

Third, Geghamyan warned that absent internal fragmentation in Iran, the conflict could shift into a prolonged war of attrition, testing endurance rather than firepower alone and potentially drawing in additional countries.

He also flagged the risk of global economic fallout if Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments, a step that could quickly drive up energy prices worldwide.