Rising Middle East tensions risk global spillover, Armenian analyst warns

Escalating conflict in Iran is being underestimated by both the public and policymakers, despite growing signs of regional and global impact, according to Armenian political analyst Varuzhan Geghamyan.

In a social media post on Wednesday, Geghamyan said the ongoing hostilities in Iran have “not only continued but entered a new phase of escalation”, pointing to the reported killing of Iran's top national security official Ali Larijani.

“Although the war unfolding in our neighborhood has largely faded from public and political attention, it is intensifying,” he wrote, warning that its consequences are already being felt beyond Iran’s borders.

Economic risks are also emerging. Armenia’s Central Bank chief recently indicated that heightened tensions in the Middle East could push inflation in Armenia up by 1.2 to 1.7 percentage points and slow economic growth.

Geghamyan stressed that the broader implications of the conflict are being underestimated, urging greater awareness of regional instability. He referenced recent scenes from Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, as further evidence of the widening impact of unrest across the Middle East.

“Once again, we must reflect on the real challenges facing our region,” he said.