Armenia-Turkey power grid link could deepen energy dependence, analyst warns

Armenian political analyst Vahe Davtyan has raised concerns over government discussions to connect Armenia’s electricity grid with Turkey, warning the move could transform Armenia into a net importer of energy.

In a social media post on Friday, Davtyan said the initiative might have been beneficial under different conditions, such as during the 2009-2010 “football diplomacy” period, when Turkey faced electricity shortages and Armenia had export potential. He argued that both the economic and security environments have since changed significantly.

Turkey is now rapidly expanding its energy capacity and aims to become a regional electricity exporter, including to South Caucasus markets. This growth is supported by major projects such as theAkkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, planned nuclear developments in Sinop and Thrace, and a large network of hydropower facilities.

Against this backdrop, Davtyan said linking the two systems would likely increase Armenia’s reliance on imported electricity.

He also pointed to internal developments that could reinforce this trend. They include Armenia’s shift toward small modular reactors to replace its existing nuclear capacity, which he said may reduce long-term energy self-sufficiency, as well as the rapid expansion of solar power. While renewable growth is significant, Davtyan noted its seasonal variability and limited export potential make it insufficient for meeting base-load demand.

Additionally, ongoing electricity market liberalization could facilitate increased imports, further raising external dependence.

Davtyan added that the European Union’s financial support for diversifying Armenia’s energy sector, primarily through loans, may contribute to rising public debt.

He warned that the combined effect of these policies could lead to reduced energy independence and heightened security risks.