Dollar slips, rouble weakens despite oil rally, economist says

The U.S. dollar extended its decline for a second consecutive session against major currencies, pulling back from recent highs as market momentum softened.

The euro rose 0.26% to $1.153, while the dollar index slipped 0.11%, retreating after recently reaching a 10-month peak.

Armenian economist Aghasi Tavadyan said movements in the Armenian dram have so far remained limited, with the dollar weakening by only about one dram over the past week.

“Short-term fluctuations have been modest, but that does not preclude sharper volatility in the near term,” he told Panorama.am on Friday.

More significant shifts have been observed elsewhere. Russia’s rouble has depreciated markedly, while the euro has remained within a relatively stable range.

The rouble’s roughly 10% decline in recent weeks appears counterintuitive given the sharp rise in global oil prices, a key source of Russia’s export revenues.

According to Tavadyan, Russia’s Urals crude oil traded at $40-$50 per barrel in February, below the $60 level assumed in the federal budget. Prices have since surged amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, lifting global benchmarks to around $95 per barrel, with Russian crude trading near $90.

“Under normal circumstances, such an increase in oil prices would boost fiscal revenues and support the rouble,” he said. “However, the current depreciation reflects other pressures, including sanctions and delays in the repatriation of export revenues.”

He added that currency dynamics could shift in the coming weeks as higher oil prices begin to feed more fully into Russia’s financial flows.