Risk to key oil pipeline rises in event of wider Iran conflict, analyst says

Discussions in Turkey and Azerbaijan over a potential expansion of a conflict involving Iran have raised concerns that critical energy infrastructure could become a target, regional security expert Varuzhan Geghamyan says.

In a social media post on Tuesday, he warned that the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a major route supplying oil to Israel, could be at risk if hostilities escalate beyond the Gulf region. The pipeline is central to the energy strategies of both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Geghamyan added that Turkey has recently stepped up efforts to ease tensions between the United States and Iran, likely aiming to prevent disruptions to regional energy flows.

The analyst also stated that Azerbaijan has altered official export data to mask the scale of oil shipments to Israel. While Israel previously appeared among the top destinations for Azerbaijani oil, it is no longer listed in recent statistics, with volumes instead recorded as exports to Turkey via the Ceyhan port.

The Azerbaijani authorities say they are not responsible for the final destination of oil shipped from Ceyhan. However, Geghamyan argued that such reporting practices are unlikely to obscure actual supply routes from Iran’s leadership.