Analyst dismisses Pashinyan's war warnings ahead of elections

Political analyst Suren Sargsyan has dismissed Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent warnings that Armenia could face imminent war if opposition forces come to power following the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, calling them “manipulative” and lacking factual basis.

In a statement posted on social media on Friday, Sargsyan argued that the likelihood of war cannot be reduced to the outcome of an election or the leadership of a single individual. He emphasized that the risk of conflict is shaped by geopolitical and domestic factors.

“War is not determined by whether one individual is elected or not,” he wrote, pointing to broader regional dynamics, including tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, as well as Turkey’s expanding role and Russia’s declining influence in the region.

Sargsyan further noted that Azerbaijan’s strategic posture is driven primarily by external developments, particularly the outcome of the Iran war, rather than Armenia’s internal political processes.

According to the analyst, preventing conflict requires “a strong army, balanced diplomacy and predictable governance”, suggesting that political change does not inherently increase the risk of war and may even prove beneficial.

He also underscored that the outbreak of war typically depends on multiple conditions, including military preparedness, diplomatic positioning and a favorable international environment.

“None of these factors is directly affected by whether Pashinyan remains in power,” Sargsyan concluded, rejecting claims that link electoral outcomes to an inevitable escalation of conflict.