Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Turkey normalization efforts stalled, analyst says

Efforts to normalize relations between Armenia and both Azerbaijan and Turkey have stalled, according to political analyst Suren Sargsyan, who points to recent official statements and a lack of tangible progress on key initiatives.

“The normalization process is effectively in a state of stagnation,” Sargsyan wrote on Facebook on Friday, citing both public rhetoric from Armenian authorities and broader regional dynamics.

He argued that Armenia’s government has, in practice, linked progress in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations almost exclusively to the implementation of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), while Turkey continues to condition its own normalization with Armenia on progress between Yerevan and Baku.

“This has created a chain of interdependent processes,” Sargsyan said. “The implementation of TRIPP, the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and Armenian-Turkish rapprochement have effectively become a single package. If one component falters, the others are immediately affected.”

Sargsyan noted that there has been no significant advancement on TRIPP, which he said is contributing to the broader diplomatic slowdown. He added that the project’s prospects are also influenced by the evolving relationship between Iran and the United States.

“Iran has repeatedly demonstrated that it can disrupt not only U.S. military initiatives in the region, but also economic ones such as TRIPP,” he said. “This means the project’s future depends not only on Washington, but increasingly on Tehran as well.”

Turning to Azerbaijan, Sargsyan warned that if TRIPP does not materialize, Baku is likely to pursue alternative strategies, including its long-standing demand for the opening of the so-called “Zangezur corridor”.

“Whether it is called TRIPP or the ‘Zangezur corridor,’ the strategic objective remains the same,” he said. “The difference would lie in who mediates or facilitates the process.”

Sargsyan concluded that without progress on TRIPP, meaningful breakthroughs in Armenian–Azerbaijani peace efforts and Armenian-Turkish normalization are unlikely.

“If TRIPP fails to move forward, the likelihood of riskier alternative scenarios increases,” he said. “The absence of viable alternatives reflects a broader miscalculation in Armenia’s foreign policy planning.”