Armenian analyst says military parade failed to strengthen deterrence

Armenian political analyst Armen Ayvazyan on Friday criticized the military parade held in Yerevan for Republic Day, saying the display failed to demonstrate the kind of military capability needed to deter Azerbaijan amid regional tensions.

In comments published after the May 28 parade, Ayvazyan said military parades are traditionally intended to showcase a state’s military strength, reassure allies, preserve military traditions, unveil new weapons systems and strengthen public morale and confidence in the armed forces.

He argued that the parade in the Armenian capital largely served political and promotional purposes while emphasizing newly acquired military equipment, but did little to address deeper concerns about the army’s combat readiness.

Ayvazyan said Armenia has not conducted large-scale military exercises in recent years, describing regular drills as essential for maintaining operational preparedness. He also pointed to a decline in troop numbers, the departure of experienced officers from military service and growing political divisions within Armenian society.

The analyst further claimed that patriotic education within the armed forces has weakened and criticized the diminished role of the Armenian Apostolic Church in the military, arguing that both developments have negatively affected morale and cohesion.

According to Ayvazyan, the weapons and equipment displayed during the parade appeared suitable for defensive operations, provided Armenia can maintain adequate ammunition supplies and ensure sufficient personnel training. However, he said Armenia also needs offensive capabilities capable of deterring Azerbaijan by threatening strategically significant infrastructure, including oil and energy facilities on the Absheron Peninsula.

He added that no such systems were publicly displayed during the parade and stressed that the effectiveness of any military buildup depends not only on the sophistication of weapons systems but also on the scale of available stockpiles, including artillery shells, missiles and drones.

Ayvazyan also noted that Azerbaijan possesses a larger and more modern military force and continues to conduct regular joint exercises with Turkey and other international partners.

“From the standpoint of deterrence, the parade unfortunately accomplished little,” Ayvazyan said, arguing that Armenia’s broader military and strategic challenges remain unresolved under the current government.