Analyst warns Armenia faces deepening crisis regardless of election outcome

Armenia is heading toward a significant medium-term crisis regardless of the outcome of the June 7 parliamentary elections, political analyst Vahe Hovhannisyan claims.

Writing on social media on Tuesday, Hovhannisyan, co-founder of the Alternative Projects Group, argued that the country is entering a period of heightened instability at a time of growing regional and global uncertainty.

He criticized the government for turning what should have been a purely domestic electoral process into one with international geopolitical implications.

"Armenia is being invited into a crisis, and it appears we are accepting that invitation," Hovhannisyan wrote.

According to the analyst, the country needed mechanisms for internal consensus, restraint and political cooperation amid rising tensions in the region, including an increasing likelihood of a new war involving Iran and other significant security risks. Instead, he said, government policies have contributed to a deeply polarized and toxic political environment.

Hovhannisyan also warned of mounting economic challenges globally, citing rising energy prices and a growing shortage of fertilizers that could lead to broader economic difficulties.

He argued that Armenia should not be forced into a binary geopolitical choice between the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the European Union. Armenia's geography and economic realities, he said, require a more balanced approach.

"Our economy benefits substantially from the opportunities provided by the EAEU," he wrote. "At the same time, as a Christian nation with a vast cultural heritage and a large Western diaspora, Armenia should aspire to European standards and institutional models."

Hovhannisyan said Armenia had inherited important opportunities through its EAEU membership and engagement with European frameworks but lacked the statecraft necessary to build on them effectively.

Looking ahead, he predicted a period of serious political and social strain and called for efforts across the political spectrum to reduce internal hostility and restore national cohesion.

"Enormous efforts will be required to rebuild internal solidarity and keep Armenia out of international confrontations," he stressed. "The toxic domestic atmosphere is the greatest obstacle to any positive development."

Hovhannisyan concluded by warning that the country's political discourse has become detached from the realities of the region and the serious risks facing the state. He urged political actors to move beyond campaign rhetoric and focus on practical solutions to national challenges.

"We live in a real region, with a real state and very serious risks," he wrote. "There are real opportunities to avoid those dangers, but we must act."