Political analyst says Armenia has no realistic path to EU membership by 2030

Armenia has virtually no chance of joining the European Union by 2030 due to the lengthy and complex accession process, political analyst Ara Poghosyan told Panorama.am in an interview on Wednesday.

Poghosyan said a 2030 target for EU membership is far too ambitious and that completing the process within the next five to six years is practically impossible given the EU’s stringent requirements and multi-stage accession procedures.

According to Poghosyan, Armenia’s authorities are presenting European integration as an imminent prospect in order to mobilize voters who place their hopes in closer ties with the West.

He also dismissed as unrealistic the possibility that Armenia would voluntarily withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), arguing that such a move would deal a severe blow to the country’s economy and could trigger serious economic consequences.

Poghosyan said the current regional and geopolitical environment remains highly unpredictable, requiring Armenian policymakers to adopt a more realistic and carefully calculated approach to the challenges facing the country.

“We have a turbulent and reactive foreign policy where there is no predictability,” Poghosyan said, describing the uncertainty surrounding Armenia’s strategic direction.