Armenian analyst says political struggle enters more critical phase after parliamentary vote

Armenia’s political confrontation is entering a more intense and consequential phase following Sunday’s parliamentary elections, political analyst Armen Baghdasaryan said in an interview with Panorama.am on Tuesday, arguing that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan may benefit politically from not securing a constitutional majority.

Speaking two days after the vote, Baghdasaryan criticized the broader election campaign, alleging that it was marked by administrative pressure, misuse of state resources, intimidation and divisive rhetoric. He said such factors may have influenced the outcome, even if not directly.

“The entire pre-election process was quite poor,” Baghdasaryan said. “The atmosphere was characterized by pressure, abuse of administrative resources, intimidation and hate speech.”

His comments contrasted with the assessment of election observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), who described the elections as open and transparent and said no violations had occurred that could have affected the results.

Baghdasaryan questioned that conclusion, suggesting it did not reflect the reality of the campaign. He also speculated that political considerations may have influenced the CIS assessment, though he said he had no evidence to support that claim.

The analyst also commented on the opposition’s muted response in the days following the election. While former President Robert Kocharyan, whose alliance participated in the race, has said the results will be challenged, opposition groups have largely remained silent on their next steps.

According to Baghdasaryan, opposition leaders are weighing whether to take their seats in parliament or pursue other forms of political action.

“More than half a million voters supported the opposition not simply for it to serve as an opposition force in parliament, but because they wanted it to achieve power,” he said.

He argued that refusing parliamentary mandates could represent a symbolic victory but would not alter the legal or political reality unless accompanied by a broader legal challenge and public mobilization.

Looking ahead, Baghdasaryan said Armenia is likely to face significant political pressure from external actors now that the election campaign has concluded.

He predicted that Western countries could encourage Armenia to further distance itself from Russia and Russian-led organizations, while Azerbaijan and Turkey may push Yerevan to hold a constitutional referendum and amend provisions they consider obstacles to a peace agreement.

“The political struggle is now entering a much hotter and more important phase,” he said. “The authorities will not be able to avoid it.”

Baghdasaryan argued that Pashinyan’s failure to obtain a constitutional majority could provide the government with additional room to maneuver. According to the analyst, the prime minister can cite the absence of the parliamentary supermajority needed for constitutional changes when responding to demands from foreign partners.

He said this could allow Pashinyan to slow efforts toward constitutional reform while also seeking to stabilize relations with Moscow.

“At this point, the authorities have some opportunity to maneuver,” Baghdasaryan said.

However, he warned that postponing difficult decisions would not eliminate the underlying challenges facing Armenia.

“Delaying solutions only deepens the problems,” he said. “Sooner or later, Armenia will have to make these choices.”

The interview was conducted before comments made by Strong Armenia party member Narek Karapetyan.