Historian: Israel's recognition of Armenian Genocide could open new diplomatic agenda

Israel's government unanimously recognized the Armenian Genocide on Sunday, a landmark decision that could reshape regional diplomacy and create new opportunities in Israeli-Armenian relations, according to historian Vahram Ter-Matevosyan.

He said the decision should be viewed within the broader geopolitical context of deteriorating Israeli-Turkish relations, marked by disputes over Gaza, Hamas, Syria, Lebanon and the Eastern Mediterranean.

"The ongoing public confrontation between Israel and Turkey has created the geopolitical environment in which the issue of Israeli recognition of the Armenian Genocide has returned to the forefront," he told Panorama.am on Tuesday.

Despite the cabinet's unanimous approval, Ter-Matevosyan cautioned that the process is not yet complete, noting that similar initiatives have failed in the past due to shifting political calculations.

"Turkey, Azerbaijan, the United States and, of course, Armenia may all seek to influence this initiative for different reasons and based on different political considerations," he said. "Until the process is complete, a variety of outcomes remains possible."

He also pointed to comments by Israel's foreign minister, who described recognition as "a moral responsibility of the Jewish people and the Jewish state" and said "it is never too late to do the right thing."

According to Ter-Matevosyan, the cabinet's decision indicates the measure could soon move to the Knesset, where lawmakers would consider legislation formally recognizing the mass killings and deportations of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in 1915 as genocide.

He said the move is unlikely to trigger a major new crisis between Israel and Turkey because relations are already at one of their lowest points. However, he argued that the Israeli recognition would carry particular diplomatic and moral significance.

"Turkey will likely dismiss it as a politically motivated step driven by geopolitical considerations rather than genuine recognition of the tragedy suffered by the Armenian people," he said.

Ter-Matevosyan also commented on the Armenian government's silence following the announcement, saying Yerevan faces a delicate diplomatic balancing act. He cited several factors, including that the decision is currently a cabinet resolution rather than enacted legislation, the need to avoid conflicting with Armenia's broader foreign policy priorities, the complexities surrounding Israel's eventual formal recognition, and unresolved issues in Armenian-Israeli relations.

Although international recognition of the Armenian Genocide is no longer an official priority of Armenia's foreign policy, Ter-Matevosyan said Israel's decision could nevertheless become an important diplomatic opportunity.

"With consistent efforts and diplomacy, it could help shape a new agenda in Armenian-Israeli relations," he said.

He added that the impact of the decision on the Armenia-Turkey normalization process will largely depend on the Armenian government's response to it.