Analyst: Armenia faces heightened security risks amid NATO summit

Political analyst Vardan Balyan warned on Tuesday that Armenia is entering a period of intensified external security challenges as NATO’s summit in Turkey places the war in Ukraine at the center of its military planning and as Russia’s strained relations with Azerbaijan take on new dimensions.

In a social media post, Balyan noted that Ukraine’s full participation in the summit and the inclusion of its proposals in the agenda underscore how the conflict has become a structural focus for NATO’s strategic posture. He highlighted recent developments in Shushi, where discussions on ethnic minority rights in Russia included calls for recognition of the Circassian genocide and condemnation of Russian and Soviet-era repressions in the Caucasus. The remarks prompted Moscow to summon Azerbaijan’s ambassador, signaling friction between the two states.

According to Balyan, these dynamics reflect the institutionalization of the Russia–West confrontation, which is likely to harden in the foreseeable future. For Armenia, he argued, this translates into mounting external security threats that will be accompanied by increased domestic political pressure on opposition figures and parties. He suggested that opposition leader Gagik Tsarukyan may be the first target in what he described as a post-election crackdown, but “certainly not the last.”

Balyan contended that the existential struggle facing Armenia’s opposition is rooted in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s imperative to preserve his government’s viability. Even if the ruling bloc succeeds in neutralizing oligarchic opposition forces, he said, the political crisis will deepen rather than resolve. “This is an inevitable and unstoppable process, whose only resolution is the removal of the governing junta,” he wrote.

The analyst predicted that public demand for the formation of a new opposition will crystallize in the near future, stressing that only a coalition of politically competent actors united around the defense of Armenian statehood, national identity, and democracy could mobilize society against a “neo-Bolshevik dictatorship.”