Armenian political analyst claims Moscow has ended political bargaining with Pashinyan

Armenian political analyst Armen Badalyan claimed that Russia is no longer willing to engage in political bargaining with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and has instead adopted a tougher approach toward Armenia over its deepening ties with the European Union.

Speaking to Panorama.am on Tuesday, Badalyan said he did not believe it was a coincidence that searches, the arrest and subsequent pretrial detention of opposition Prosperous Armenia Party leader and businessman Gagik Tsarukyan took place on the same day that Pashinyan traveled to Yekaterinburg for meetings with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

Badalyan argued that Armenian authorities may have hoped to use Tsarukyan's case as leverage in discussions with Moscow.

Tsarukyan was identified as a "politically persecuted" figure during the United Russia party congress two weeks earlier by Dmitry Medvedev, chairman of the party and deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council.

"He may have thought he could negotiate: 'Will you lift the sanctions? Then I'll release the pro-Russian politician.' But that did not happen," Badalyan said.

According to Badalyan, Pashinyan underestimated Russia's decision to sever political ties with Armenia's current leadership and demand a clearer separation between Armenia's European integration efforts and its commitments within Russian-led institutions.

"If Russia were still willing to bargain politically, there would have been no sanctions or restrictions against Armenia after June 7," he said. "Officials believe the prime minister can simply travel to Russia and resolve these issues. He cannot."

Badalyan claimed Moscow is implementing a "Plan B" aimed at weakening Armenia through economic and political pressure. He said future measures could include broader trade restrictions or disruptions to financial flows from Russia to Armenia.

He also said Russia could suspend Armenia's membership in the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), despite skepticism within Armenia that such a move would occur.

Badalyan further questioned whether Russia would recognize Pashinyan's authority after his current term expires on August 2 and a new prime minister is expected to be nominated by parliament on August 3.

He pointed out that Russia has not congratulated Pashinyan on his party’s victory in the June 7 parliamentary elections, which he interpreted as a refusal to recognize his legitimacy. He also suggested that Russia could refuse to receive Pashinyan at future meetings in Moscow or Minsk.

According to Badalyan, Moscow's central demand is for Armenia to clarify its strategic orientation.

He said Russia expects Armenia either to hold a referendum if it intends to pursue European Union membership or to reaffirm its commitment to the EAEU if it intends to remain aligned with the Russian-led bloc. He argued that Armenia's government has avoided such a referendum because of the political consequences it could produce.

Badalyan said Russia views Armenia's current trajectory as an effort to eliminate Russian military, political and economic influence in the country while implementing policies aligned with the European Union.

He also warned that Russia could take steps affecting Armenian migrant workers, noting that hundreds of thousands of Armenians live and work in Russia.

"There is no guarantee they will not be sent back to Armenia," Badalyan said, arguing that such a move would have significant political repercussions for Armenia's government.