Armenian politician says Aliyev's Ukraine remarks expose Russia's waning influence in South Caucasus

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s recent call for Ukrainians to "never accept occupation" amounts to an appeal to continue fighting Russia and underscores Moscow’s declining influence in the South Caucasus, according to Armenian opposition politician Artak Zakaryan.

In a Facebook post on Thursday, Zakaryan, a senior member of the Republican Party of Armenia, argued that Aliyev’s remarks at the Global Media Forum in Shushi reveal a broader geopolitical shift that has left Russia with "two disgruntled partners" instead of two allies in the region.

"That means he called on Ukraine to continue the war against Russia and publicly encouraged further military action," Zakaryan wrote, referring to Aliyev's comments.

Zakaryan accused the Azerbaijani leader of selectively interpreting history, arguing that Azerbaijan’s emergence as a major oil- and gas-exporting state was made possible by extensive Soviet investment. He also asserted that Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and Nakhchivan were incorporated into Soviet Azerbaijan through decisions made by Moscow.

"If Aliyev calls changing geopolitical patrons and abandoning historical memory 'freedom' and refusing to accept occupation, then he has either learned Azerbaijan's rewritten version of history or failed to study the history of the South Caucasus and Eastern Europe," Zakaryan wrote.

He said he had repeatedly warned Russian lawmakers that Moscow’s confidence in its relationship with Baku would ultimately backfire.

"I told Russian deputies on several occasions that your unjustified trust in Azerbaijan would one day work against you," he wrote, adding that he had also raised similar concerns with Israeli officials.

Zakaryan argued that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, both Armenia and Azerbaijan maintained close ties with Russia, with Armenia adopting a particularly strong allied posture because of security concerns and the Karabakh peace process.

According to Zakaryan, Moscow’s long-standing effort to avoid fully siding with either Armenia or Azerbaijan ultimately alienated both.

"The result is obvious," he wrote. "Armenia feels abandoned, while Azerbaijan now speaks to Russia in a harsh and increasingly arrogant tone."

He also claimed Russia now faces the prospect of losing its foothold in the South Caucasus after withdrawing its peacekeeping contingent from Nagorno-Karabakh, while Iran, Israel and, eventually, the European Union could also find themselves disappointed by their relations with Azerbaijan.

Zakaryan further argued that the existence of Armenian-populated Artsakh had served the strategic interests of multiple regional actors, with the exception of Turkey and Azerbaijan. He said European governments were mistaken if they believed supporting Azerbaijan’s takeover of Artsakh and its depopulation would produce meaningful geopolitical gains.

Concluding his post, Zakaryan said Aliyev’s comments on Ukraine should prompt Moscow to reconsider its regional strategy.

"The question is who in Moscow will finally admit that the problem is not only with 'ungrateful allies,' but also with those who spent years building relations while ignoring the political realities that were taking shape," he wrote.