Iran remains resilient despite heavy losses, Armenian politician says

Iran has remained resilient despite sustaining major diplomatic and military setbacks, and any renewed conflict with the United States risks becoming a prolonged war of attrition rather than a quick military victory, Armenian opposition politician Artak Zakaryan said.

Writing on social media on Saturday, Zakaryan, a senior member of the Republican Party of Armenia, said U.S. President Donald Trump had expected that a ceasefire memorandum with Iran would provide enough stability to carry his administration through the U.S. midterm elections. Instead, he argued, those expectations appear to have fallen short.

According to Zakaryan, Tehran agreed to the memorandum believing it would secure substantial financial relief, including the unfreezing of assets and the lifting of sanctions. He said those expectations were reflected both in public statements by Iranian officials and in the text of the agreement.

Zakaryan argued that Trump had intended to intensify pressure on Iran after the midterm elections, when he expected to have greater political latitude.

Pointing to the U.S. media reports, Zakaryan said the president's electoral prospects remain uncertain and suggested Iranian leaders are seeking to exploit that political vulnerability by increasing pressure on the administration.

As a result, he said, the White House appears to have adjusted its strategy, with military operations resuming sooner than anticipated after the memorandum was signed.

Zakaryan said the agreement allowed the Trump administration to demonstrate that it had made every effort to halt, or at least pause, the fighting. He added that the pause helped stabilize global oil markets, ease shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and reduce both domestic and international pressure on Washington.

Should full-scale hostilities resume, Zakaryan said, they would represent "an entirely new campaign," driven by different objectives and backed by new strategic resources, rather than a continuation of the previous phase of the conflict.

He also cited analyses in U.S. policy circles suggesting the administration could seek to launch what it views as a decisive military campaign shortly before the midterm elections, arguing it was left with no alternative. Zakaryan noted that some commentators have drawn comparisons with the political boost President George W. Bush received during wartime.

"Iran's case is fundamentally different," Zakaryan said.

"Despite suffering enormous losses, both diplomatically and on the battlefield, Iran has defended itself quite effectively."

Drawing a comparison with the Ukraine conflict, Zakaryan said many observers initially believed Moscow would achieve its objectives quickly in 2022, yet the war evolved into a protracted conflict with no clear end in sight.

He said a U.S.-Iran conflict could follow a similar trajectory, warning that despite attempts to secure a rapid outcome, the confrontation could ultimately devolve into a long, exhausting war of attrition.