Analyst warns Armenia risks strain with Iran over TRIPP

Armenia’s push to advance the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) initiative is drawing sharp scrutiny from Tehran, where officials fear the project could expand U.S. influence in the region.

Despite Yerevan’s assurances that the plan is aimed solely at improving regional connectivity and economic cooperation, Iranian officials have grown increasingly skeptical. Their escalating rhetoric suggests Armenia’s diplomatic efforts have not eased concerns in Tehran, which views the project as a potential disruption to the strategic balance, political analyst Tigran Dumikyan says.

In a social media post on Friday, he warned the stakes are high for Armenia. About 20 percent of its natural gas imports come from Iran, a crucial source for energy security. Annual trade between the two countries totals roughly $800 million, and Iran serves as a vital transit corridor for goods from India, China, the Persian Gulf, and Southeast Asia.

At the same time, Armenia’s relationship with Russia remains unsettled. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had predicted Moscow would lift restrictions following parliamentary elections, citing his personal ties with Russian leaders. But neither President Vladimir Putin nor Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin congratulated him after the vote, and no progress followed their meeting in Yekaterinburg.

Dumikyan cautions that missteps could leave Armenia squeezed between competing powers. He argues the country must deepen ties with the West without undermining trust with regional heavyweights. “Politics is the art of the possible,” he writes, urging Yerevan to avoid becoming a pawn in great-power rivalries and instead use contradictions to advance its long-term national interests.