Analyst: Iran used military and diplomatic means to maintain status quo and counter Turkey

Iran is increasingly positioning itself as a counterbalance to Turkey in the region, political analyst Sergey Melkonyan, a researcher at APRI Armenia, told reporters ahead of a discussion organized by the Armenian Research Institute (ARI) and Rossotrudnichestvo on Wednesday.

He noted that Iran has repeatedly obstructed Azerbaijan’s push for the "Zangezur Corridor" first, by conducting military exercises whenever Azerbaijan attempted to forcefully open the corridor, and second, by proposing an alternative route through its own territory, known as the "Aras Corridor".

"Iran has used both military and diplomatic means to preserve the status quo and counter Turkey," Melkonyan stated.

Addressing U.S.-Iran relations, the analyst predicted a potential escalation but downplayed the likelihood of an imminent large-scale U.S. attack. "Washington's current military capabilities in the Middle East are insufficient for a full-scale attack. The U.S. would first need to reinforce its military presence and secure its bases in the region. At this point, the U.S. has not reached that level, making a full-scale assault unlikely in the coming weeks," he said.

Regarding potential military action, Melkonyan emphasized the role of Israel. "Israel is fully focused on the Gaza conflict. Its primary objective is to clear and partially occupy Gaza. The bulk of its forces and military resources are concentrated there rather than in Lebanon, Syria, or, least of all, Iran," he added.