Expert: Russia used Nagorno-Karabakh as a tool to influence Armenia and Azerbaijan

Russia can no longer reclaim its former influence in the South Caucasus, political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute, said at an international roundtable on Russia-U.S. dialogue and its impact on Eurasian security in Yerevan on Saturday.

According to Iskandaryan, Russia’s influence in the region was historically rooted in the Armenia-Azerbaijan dynamic, with Nagorno-Karabakh serving as the key geopolitical tool. “To influence Azerbaijan, Russia needed Armenia; to influence Armenia, it needed Azerbaijan. The mechanism was the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, not just its ethnic Armenian population,” he noted.

With the recent changes in the region’s security landscape, Iskandaryan argued that Russia is no longer essential to either country. “Azerbaijan no longer needs Russia after winning the [2020 Artsakh] war and achieving its objectives and Armenia, having lost what it once held, sees no benefit either.”

Referring to Armenia's possible accession to the European Union, Iskandaryan dismissed it as domestic political rhetoric, calling the idea a “media bubble”. He emphasized that there is no real path to EU membership and that the recent parliamentary bill to begin accession talks is symbolic, not substantive.