Analyst: Pashinyan has one last chance to leave with dignity in 2026

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is running out of time to make a dignified departure from office, political analyst Suren Surenyants claims.

In comments made following the recent municipal elections in Gyumri, Surenyants challenged National Assembly Speaker Alen Simonyan's claims that the ruling Civil Contract party would still win a majority if parliamentary elections were held today.

“Simonyan’s claim that Civil Contract would win 50+1% of the vote may seem normal for a ruling party desperate to cling to power although it’s increasingly detached from reality,” he wrote on Telegram on Wednesday.

He called the statement an attempt to “boost morale” within Civil Contract following its defeat in the Gyumri elections in late March. While acknowledging that local elections are not always indicative of national political trends, Surenyants argued that the Gyumri results underscore the ruling party’s declining public support.

“Civil Contract no longer has a realistic path to securing a majority,” he stated. “Worse, the party faces the prospect of political isolation both in the parliament and in local governments, especially given the likely failure of their pseudo pro-Western allies,” he stated.

The analyst also suggested that the ruling party may resort to electoral fraud at the 2026 parliamentary elections in Armenia to retain power.

Simultaneously, the government has intensified its anti-Russian rhetoric. Surenyants pointed to recent comments by MP Arsen Torosyan, who accused Moscow of seeking to influence the 2026 elections, echoing similar statements by Simonyan, who claimed Russia is conducting a hybrid war against Armenia.

"2026 represents Pashinyan’s final chance to leave honorably. But judging by his administration’s aggressive posture, it seems he has no intention of seizing the chance. Yet it doesn't increase his chances to remain in power, it only narrows the path for Pashinyan's peaceful departure,” Surenyants added.