Analyst deplores Armenia's industrial decline in first half of 2025

Political analyst Hakob Badalyan has deplored a 12% decline in Armenia's industrial output during the first half of 2025 from the same period in 2024.

“To put it mildly, it paints a bleak picture of the economy,” Badalyan wrote on Facebook on Saturday, reacting to the latest list of top taxpayers released by the State Revenue Committee.

“Industry is one of the key indicators of a healthy economy. A double-digit decline shows that Armenia is essentially turning into a mere trade zone, bluntly put, a hypermarket.”

Badalyan emphasized that while growth in services and IT is often celebrated, it doesn’t make up for the collapse of core economic sectors.

“The much-hyped IT sector isn’t really serving Armenia’s economy,” he said. “It’s mostly office work done here for the benefit of other countries.”

The analyst also questioned Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s claims of “record-breaking” growth in registered jobs.

“That number is manipulative,” Badalyan argued. “Thousands, possibly tens of thousands of people are registered in multiple companies in Armenia. That figure has no real connection to the actual economic situation.”

He recalls that much of Armenia’s economic activity is being driven by re-exports to Russia, which is politically vulnerable. Badalyan stated that Pashinyan’s recent trip to Russia’s Altai region to meet with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was aimed at addressing these issues.

“Evidently, the political leadership has no strategic vision for industrial development,” the analyst stated. “The concept of the so-called ‘Real Armenia’ doesn’t even include industry. They believe industrial growth is unrealistic.”

He argues that the current model prioritizing small businesses, retail and services may serve short-term political interests by fostering a stable environment for political longevity, but it does so at the expense of long-term economic resilience.

“For now, the model seems to work,” he added.