Analyst: Armenia-Azerbaijan 'normalization' is capitulation amid growing demands from Baku

Following Armenia’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the country has lost its geopolitical leverage and is now under intensifying pressure from Azerbaijan, political analyst Arman Grigoryan claims.

Speaking at the launch of his new book "Between the Hammer of Nationalism and the Anvil of Liberalism" on Thursday, Grigoryan, who lectures at Lehigh University in the United States, stated that the current discourse around "normalization" of relations with Azerbaijan is misleading.

He argued that Armenia’s strategic position has been fundamentally altered since the 2020 war.

“After the war, Armenia rejected all proposals and adopted an overtly critical, if not hostile, stance toward its primary security guarantor, Russia,” Grigoryan said. “We accused Moscow of colluding with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which severely undermined bilateral relations.”

According to the analyst, Armenia’s rhetoric and policy shift toward Russia had long-term consequences. He noted that Russia had delineated its strategic red lines as early as 2008, warning that it would not tolerate external military or political presence within the borders of the former Soviet Union, excluding the Baltic states.

“Armenia’s leadership signaled a strategic realignment and expected Russia to uphold its prior commitments unconditionally. That’s not how international politics works,” Grigoryan remarked.

While clarifying that he had never opposed the normalization relations with Turkey even after 2020, he stressed the need to bring the Treaty of Sèvres back to the negotiating table.

“Previously, we had an opportunity to normalize relations peacefully with certain international guarantees in place and within an existing security framework. Now, we are attempting to exit that framework, having already lost the war and failed to resolve issues with Azerbaijan through diplomacy. Amid Azerbaijan’s unrelenting demands, normalization effectively amounts to capitulation," the analyst stated.