How Erdogan, Aliyev and Pashinyan deceived Trump

By Anahit Voskanyan

Where shall we begin, from the distant past or from the middle of the story?

If we start from afar, it is worth recalling Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s youthful musings, expressed more than two decades ago as a journalist: “If Armenia, ignoring its own interests, has served Russia with its entire territory, what prevents it from allowing a small, tiny piece of land to serve the interests of the United States and Turkey?”

In fact, it was the Republic of Artsakh that kept Azerbaijan at a safe distance from Armenia’s borders, granting Armenians the luxury of living without the Azeri threat at their doorstep. Thousands of young men laid down their lives to ensure that neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey could breathe down Armenia’s neck.

And now, with Pashinyan having drawn Turkey and Azerbaijan closer than ever, what remains is for “a tiny piece of land” to serve U.S. and Turkish interests, and thus for Pashinyan’s long-held dream (or the one whispered deeply into his ear) to come true.

Whether this idea was conceived for Turkey’s benefit from the very beginning is now beside the point. What matters is that, as early as 2001, Artsakh’s continued existence was absent from Pashinyan’s strategic calculations. Otherwise, how could “a tiny piece of land” connect Azerbaijan and Turkey through Armenia?

Let’s move forward. What kind of businessman, let alone a head of state, would commit millions to a draft agreement with nothing more than a preliminary signature?

That Pashinyan is firmly in their grip is beyond doubt. But the ongoing road construction projects reveal even more.

On August 25, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared: “On August 22, we laid the foundations for a project of strategic importance for the South Caucasus. We proudly launched the construction of the Kars-Igdir-Aralik-Dilucu railway, which will open the door to the Zangezur Corridor.”

Turkey has already allocated €2.4 billion for this project. Who would embark on such a massive and costly undertaking without confidence that Armenia would not reverse its position on granting Turkey “a small piece of land”?

Notably, Pashinyan carefully avoided mentioning Azerbaijani interests earlier. But he also never clarified that if Armenia gave Turkey access to Asia, Artsakh itself would have to serve as a passage linking Turkey with Azerbaijan.

This context also helps explain why Pashinyan so swiftly rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal regarding Armenian prisoners.

Considering the scale of construction already underway, it is hard to escape the conclusion that a final agreement has already been signed between Erdogan, Aliyev and Pashinyan. The “pre-signature” presented to Trump was nothing more than a show, an illusion of a U.S.-brokered diplomatic breakthrough.

After the so-called “pre-signing” of an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement in Washington, Erdogan publicly complained that it did not serve Turkey’s interests, while Aliyev praised Pashinyan, noting the advantages of turning Armenia into a transit country.

The leaders kept up appearances for Trump and the U.S. Meanwhile, as Trump boasted he had brought peace between “Aberbaijan and Albania”, full-scale construction was already in progress to open the “Zangezur Corridor”.

Neither Erdogan nor Aliyev has ever called it “Trump’s route”. Instead, they consistently speak of the "Zangezur Corridor", “passage” or “the opening of gates.”

Aliyev has even stated that the 42-kilometer stretch of road would take Azerbaijan no more than a year to complete, while for Armenia, construction might take several years.

So much for illusions, Monsieur Trump!

P.S. And which part, after all, is “only” 42 kilometers?