Analyst: No major breakthrough expected in Armenia-Turkey relations before peace deal

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has announced that a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is expected in the first half of 2026. “As soon as a final agreement is signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, we will quickly normalize relations with Armenia as well,” he stated.

Commenting on his statement, political analyst Suren Surenyants highlighted two key points:

1. Turkey continues to link the normalization of relations with Armenia to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. Surenyants stressed that no major breakthrough can be expected in Armenia-Turkey relations before a final peace deal is signed.

2. The analyst questioned Fidan’s confidence in the proposed deadline, noting that Azerbaijan is demanding constitutional changes in Armenia as a precondition. Surenyants argued that meeting such demands within the given timeframe is neither legally feasible nor politically realistic.

“Thus, Fidan’s statement seems less a reflection of concrete realities and more an optimistic forecast,” Surenyants wrote.