Analyst: Return of Armenians to Artsakh not realistic

Political analyst Suren Surenyants believes the return of displaced Armenians to Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) is no longer a realistic prospect regardless of a change of power in Armenia.

In an interview with Panorama.am on Friday, he argued that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is effectively closed.

“No, absolutely not. Even in case of a change of power in Armenia, the return of Artsakh Armenians to their homes is not a realistic agenda,” the analyst claimed.

He stressed that after the 2020 war, Armenia had a chance to preserve Armenian life in the remaining part of Karabakh under the terms of the November 9 ceasefire. Instead, he said, Yerevan pursued “reckless adventurism” by abandoning the Russian framework in favor of Western guarantees that never materialized.

The analyst outlined three hypothetical scenarios for repatriation of Artsakh Armenians:

1. A new war with an Armenian victory, which he dismissed as “science fiction.”

2. International guarantees – unrealistic in the current geopolitical climate, he argued, citing the failures of global peacekeeping missions.

3. Return under Azerbaijani rule – impossible, as no Armenian family would agree to their children serving in Azerbaijan’s army.

“None of these options are realistic,” the analyst said, adding that Armenia should instead focus on supporting displaced Artsakh Armenians in seeking compensation and property rights through international justice mechanisms.

Speaking about the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process, Surenyants insisted that genuine peace remains “very far away”. He said the Washington-backed TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) initiative serves U.S., Israeli and Azerbaijani interests, but risks confrontation with Russia, Iran, China and India.

He suggested Armenia could reduce risks by aligning with BRICS states and positioning itself as a regional transit hub. Otherwise, he warned that the operation of the Trump Route would lead to “geopolitical collision”.

Surenyants also stressed that if the Armenian opposition comes to power, it must at least ensure Armenia’s territorial integrity within its current borders.