Average global temperature to hit 1.4°C above preindustrial levels in 2026, Met Office warns

The Met Office warns that 2026 is likely to become the fourth year on record where temperatures hit 1.4°C above preindustrial levels.

Scientists predict that 2026 will be one of the hottest years since 1850, as heat-trapping emissions continue to boil the planet, Euronews reports.

Earlier this month, data from Copernicus warned that 2025 is currently tied with 2023 as the second-warmest year on record, with the global average temperature from January to November 2025 hitting 1.48°C above preindustrial levels.

2024 remains the hottest year since records began, and the first to exceed 1.5°C over the 1850-1900 baseline.

How hot will 2026 be?

The UK’s Met Office has released its latest outlook for the global average temperature, warning that 2026 is likely to become the fourth year where global average temperatures climb 1.4°C over the preindustrial average.

Researchers predict temperatures will reach between 1.34°C and 1.58°C, with a central estimate of 1.46°C, above the average for the preindustrial period.

“The last three years are all likely to have exceeded 1.4°C and we expect 2026 will be the fourth year in succession to do this,” says Professor Adam Scaife, who led the team behind the global forecast.

“Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C.”