U.S. seeks to reassert control over Venezuela's oil sector, analyst says

Political and military developments in Venezuela over recent days have once again injected uncertainty into global oil markets, raising questions over exports, foreign investment and future price dynamics, analysts say.

U.S. military actions, including the reported detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and incursions into several strategic facilities, have marked a new phase in the escalation of tensions in the oil-rich country.

International relations and energy geopolitics expert Armen Manvelyan claims Venezuela lags far behind Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States in actual oil production despite holding one of the world’s largest proven oil reserves estimated at around 300 billion barrels.

“Venezuelan oil is technically expensive to extract because the country’s terrain is mountainous and reserves are located at significant depths,” Manvelyan told Panorama.am on Monday. “At the same time, global oil prices have fallen to around $60-65 per barrel, more than twice as low as in previous years, when prices exceeded $120. As a result, Venezuela has been forced to sharply reduce output.”

According to Manvelyan, Washington’s strategic interest in Venezuela is primarily centered on controlling oil production.

“Donald Trump’s objective is to return Venezuela’s oil infrastructure to American companies, take control of production and reduce U.S. dependence on the Middle East and Iran,” he said.

Manvelyan added that Trump’s broader energy policy is aimed at keeping oil prices low to limit the influence of major competitors such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran, while ensuring stability in the U.S. market.

“Trump wants oil prices to remain low at all times,” he said. “As for how Venezuela will affect global prices, at least a week is needed for developments to become clearer.”

Referring to investment risks, Manvelyan noted that China and Russia have significant exposure in Venezuela – around $20 billion from Russia and several times that amount from China.

“If American control is established, existing investments by other countries become highly risky,” he said.

He added that in periods of instability, exporting countries are usually the first to suffer, while importing nations may benefit in the short term from lower prices translating into cheaper fuel.

“The international financial system is also affected,” the expert said. “Western financial structures, particularly the U.S. dollar and the European Union, cannot remain fully stable amid such uncertainty. This pushes countries toward creating alternative credit and payment mechanisms outside Western-dominated systems.”