Analyst: Ukraine war was an opportunity, not a challenge, for Armenia's economy

Armenia’s economic growth since 2018 is being overstated by the government and owes little to domestic policy, political analyst Hakob Badalyan says, arguing that the war in Ukraine created economic opportunities rather than challenges for the country.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at a cabinet meeting that Armenia’s economy has grown by 50% since 2018 despite major challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and war.

Badalyan dismissed the claim in a social media post on Thursday, saying it ignores inflation, a sharp rise in public debt and favorable external conditions unrelated to government policy.

While the pandemic affected all global economies, Badalyan said the 2020 war left Armenia with significant economic losses, including the loss of key resource areas, and that responsibility for this “challenge” rests primarily with the current leadership.

By contrast, he stated for nearly four years now, the war in Ukraine has created an external environment that has significantly boosted Armenia’s economic indicators, outweighing the negative effects of COVID-19 and the 2020 conflict. He added that rising prices and a doubling of public debt further undermine claims of policy-driven success.

“Had there been competent economic management, growth figures should have been far higher and public debt significantly lower,” Badalyan said.