Analyst warns Iran tensions risk regional war, criticizes Pashinyan for neglecting security

Armenian political analyst and historian Armen Ayvazyan has warned that escalating tensions around Iran could trigger a major regional conflict with serious consequences for Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In a social media post on Monday, Ayvazyan pointed to remarks by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who vowed that Tehran would “strike back forcefully” to any attack, potentially drawing the entire region into war. Iranian officials and analysts have suggested that in addition to targeting U.S. and Israeli assets, Iran could seek to halt oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf and Azerbaijan.

Mohammad Marandi, an advisor to Iran's nuclear negotiating team frequently viewed as a voice for the Iranian security establishment, threatened to “sweep away” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s regime over its alleged cooperation with Israel during last year’s conflict.

Ayvazyan criticized Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, accusing him of focusing on public festivities while neglecting national security.

“Meanwhile, Pashinyan is busy with beating drums, singing, dancing and harnessing the entire security system to persecute Armenian clergymen. This is absurd,” he wrote.

The analyst cautioned that relying on hopes of U.S. restraint toward Iran would be a dangerous approach to governance.