Armenian expert warns ruling party must be defeated before elections

Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract party can only be defeated before, not on, parliamentary election day, political strategist Armen Badalyan claims, arguing that foreign backing and recent legal changes have already tilted the playing field ahead of the June 7 vote.

In an interview to Panorama.am on Monday, Badalyan said a “Moldovan scenario” – referring to European Union support for Moldova during its electoral processes – is already unfolding in Armenia.

The comments follow remarks by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Brussels would support Armenia in the run-up to parliamentary elections, as it has done in Moldova.

“Yes, the Moldovan scenario will not only play out in these elections – it has already begun,” Badalyan said. He pointed to restrictions on election observer missions and new legislation regulating charitable activities, which he believes could potentially be used to block party registrations.

He added that external support for the ruling political force was “quite visible.”

Armenia’s next parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 7. The ruling Civil Contract party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, holds a majority in the National Assembly.

According to Badalyan, opposition forces have so far limited themselves to criticizing recent changes rather than adjusting their campaign strategies.

“I cannot say they have changed their tactics,” he said. “They are going into the elections with outdated methods, as if the Moldovan scenario does not exist.”

He dismissed suggestions that a unified opposition running in four or five large alliances could replicate the outcome of recent local elections in Gyumri, arguing that parliamentary elections are fundamentally different.

“People do not vote because you are the opposition,” he said. “They vote based on entirely different principles.”

He described the upcoming vote as “a geopolitical election,” saying the government formed after the ballot would determine Armenia’s strategic direction.

According to Badalyan, Western countries have already made their choice. “Whether we like it or not, these countries will interfere in the elections,” he said, noting Kallas had announced 15 million euros in support. He also cited the upcoming European Political Community summit to be held in Armenia.

Badalyan argued that pro-Western opposition forces should not expect support from Russia, while more Eurasian-leaning parties should be actively engaging Moscow and Tehran if they hope to counterbalance Western influence.

“No such efforts are visible,” he said, adding that some opposition parties appear content to remain in opposition and secure a small number of parliamentary seats rather than pursue power.

“Always remember that the ruling political force must be defeated before the elections,” he said. “If it is not defeated before the vote, it will not be defeated on June 7.”

Asked whether he was referring to impeachment, Badalyan noted that while the constitution provides such mechanisms, change does not necessarily require impeachment.

“If there is no force majeure and no change in approach, we will see another five years of the same political force remaining in power,” he said.