Regional escalation enters 'high-risk phase', Armenian analyst warns

Israel and the US. Have launched strikes against Iran, sharply raising the risk of broader regional escalation, Armenian political analyst Vladimir Martirosyan said on Saturday, warning of direct security implications for Armenia.

The U.S. Pentagon has referred to the operation as “Epic Fury”, while Israel has described it as “Lion’s Roar” and “Shield of Judah,” according to Martirosyan.

“This means the region is entering a high-risk phase,” he wrote on Facebook.

Martirosyan said the developments represent an immediate security agenda for Armenia, citing potential threats to energy transit routes, border management, economic communications, external political pressure and migration risks.

He warned in particular of the possibility of refugee flows from Iran, which has a population of about 79 million, as well as increased pressure on border crossing points and added social and security burdens.

“The state is obliged to discuss these scenarios in advance and have ready mechanisms in place,” he said.

Martirosyan criticized what he described as a lack of visible emergency strategic discussions, clear public messaging or institutional preparedness from the Armenian authorities.

“Instead, we see demonstrative media activity and light showmanship,” he wrote, arguing that when military escalation begins in a neighbouring country, the primary duty of the authorities is risk management rather than public relations.

“Security is not a PR project. Governance is not blogging,” he said.

Martirosyan added that his remarks were not driven by expectations of a response from the Armenian leadership, but by a desire to prevent irresponsible conduct from becoming normalized among decision-makers.