Armenian activist says current government benefits regional powers

An Armenian civic activist claims the country’s current leadership remains advantageous to key regional power centers, including Moscow, while cautioning that the period following the upcoming parliamentary elections could bring significant political instability.

Speaking at a forum titled “Life After June 7”, organized by the Alternative Projects Group on Monday, Menua Soghomonyan of the Hayakve initiative said the government operates through “nontraditional, non-linear demands”, contrasting it with more conventional approaches among some opposition groups.

Soghomonyan said authorities have demonstrated an ability to address minor pre-election concerns, such as infrastructure repairs, but have failed to resolve broader issues, particularly the issue of peace, which he argued cannot be settled through elections alone.

He outlined two potential post-election scenarios. If the ruling party retains power, Soghomonyan said it could move to consolidate control by securing a constitutional majority in the parliament, warning of a possible shift toward authoritarian governance. He also alleged that opposition figures could face intensified pressure, underscoring the importance of carefully structured opposition candidate lists.

According to Soghomonyan, the government has suggested that failure to achieve a two-thirds parliamentary majority could increase the likelihood of renewed conflict. He added that maintaining a perception of peace may involve concessions, potentially including disputed territories referred to as enclaves. He said the immediate post-election period, particularly June and July, would be the most likely window for such developments, citing potential public disillusionment.

In a scenario where opposition forces receive more votes, Soghomonyan said they must act decisively to use their mandates to pursue political change, emphasizing that opposition votes should not go unused in a way that prevents a transfer of power.

Even in the case of an opposition victory, he predicted “extraordinary” developments requiring significant effort to navigate.

Soghomonyan argued that Armenia, under its current leadership, remains acceptable to several regional power centers, including Moscow, as it allows them to avoid fully meeting obligations under existing agreements.

He called for broad political reconciliation and the formation of a collective leadership model involving a wide range of political actors. He also advocated for constitutional reforms to establish a system that would prevent the concentration of power within state institutions.

Such reforms, he said, should ensure that no single political majority can fully control key institutions, particularly the prosecutor’s office. He added that an independent prosecutor could play a role in preventing controversial territorial decisions and argued that parliament should not have the authority to dismiss the prosecutor general.