Armenian expert warns of elevated spring flood risk after wet winter

Armenia is likely to face an elevated risk of spring flooding following an unusually warm and wet winter, the country’s Hydrometeorology and Monitoring Center has said.

Speaking at a press conference on Friday, its director, Levon Azizyan, noted that November 2025 was the second driest and warmest November since records began in 1935. In contrast, February 2026 was the warmest February on record, with an average temperature of 0.1C – 4.9°C above the seasonal norm – accompanied by significantly higher-than-average precipitation.

Rainfall in February reached 78 mm, more than double the norm at 206%. March continued the trend, becoming the wettest March since 1935, with 98 mm of precipitation, or 198% of average levels. Snow cover during the month was also substantially above normal, reaching 157% of typical levels.

Azizyan said that, taken together, the hydrometeorological conditions observed between November and March are expected to have a stronger-than-usual impact on the development of spring flooding in 2026.

Temperatures in April are forecast to be around 1C below average, before rising to about 1C above normal in May and June. Spring river flows are projected at between 100% and 130% of seasonal norms, with some rivers potentially reaching 140–160%.

Peak river discharge is expected in late April and during the first half of May. Authorities warn that heavy rainfall during this period could lead to localised flooding in riverside areas, although such events can typically only be forecast three to four days in advance.

Reservoir levels are also expected to be high. The Akhuryan, Azat and Marmarik reservoirs are forecast to reach full capacity, while Aparan is expected to reach 82–88% and Lake Arpi 80–85%.

If these projections materialize, reservoir levels would reach their highest levels in the past 15 years, Azizyan added.