Analyst questions government narrative on extreme poverty in Armenia

Political analyst Hakob Badalyan has cast doubt on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent claims that extreme poverty in Armenia is nearing elimination, arguing the statement may have been influenced by a separate initiative announced by businessman and philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan’s team.

In a May Day address, Pashinyan said extreme poverty in the country is “on the verge of eradication” and would soon be officially recorded as such. Badalyan contends that the issue would likely not have been highlighted in the speech had Karapetyan’s team not announced plans to establish a foundation providing monthly assistance of 150,000 drams to extremely poor families.

Writing on social media, Badalyan further suggested that the authorities may be preparing to present favorable statistical adjustments, potentially declaring the elimination of extreme poverty ahead of the June 7 parliamentary elections.

He contrasted the government’s claims with broader economic trends, noting that Armenian banks have reported hundreds of millions of dollars in annual superprofits over the past four years, reaching nearly $1 billion in 2022 alone. Companies engaged in re-exports to and from Russia also recorded significant gains during the same period.

Despite these developments, Badalyan argued that poverty reduction has been minimal. He estimated that overall poverty has declined by only about 2 percentage points during Pashinyan’s eight years in office, including roughly a 1-point drop amid the recent economic surge. He also pointed to an $8 billion increase in public debt over that period.

“In such circumstances, claims that extreme poverty will soon disappear require a considerable suspension of judgment,” Badalyan wrote.